Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) Stock Analysis — Probabli.AI
AI-powered analysis for ARCC (Ares Capital Corporation): probabilistic price forecasts, technical signals, peer comparison, institutional ownership, earnings history, and social sentiment. Latest AI outlook: Neutral.
Last price: $18.09 · Market cap: $13.0B · AI outlook: Neutral
Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) presents a mixed outlook driven by a compelling dividend yield and portfolio growth contrasted against financing cost risks and macroeconomic dependencies. Its commendable analyst consensus reflects upside potential while sectoral and economic vulnerabilities warrant caution. Improvements in ARCC’s financial resilience and economic conditions could unlock its…
Probabilistic 1-Year Outlook
- Bull 40% · Neutral 40% · Bear 20%
- 1-year price estimates — P10: $16 / P50: $21 / P90: $24
- Ares Capital Corporation has a strong dividend yield and solid analyst consensus with a median price target significantly above current levels, but exposure to economic cycles and financing costs carry notable risks.
5-Year Outlook
- Bull 50% · Neutral 30% · Bear 20%
- 5-year price estimates — P10: $13 / P50: $28 / P90: $33
SWOT Highlights
- Strength: Industry-leading dividend yield
- Strength: Experienced management in private capital
- Risk: High payout ratio, indicating potential unsustainability of dividends
- Risk: Heavy exposure to retail sector vulnerabilities
Major Catalysts
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Analyst Coverage & Dividends
10 Wall Street analysts rate ARCC a BUY with a mean price target of $21.6. Ares Capital Corporation currently pays a dividend with a yield of approximately 10.61%.
Last analyzed · Model: gpt-4o. How this forecast works · Accuracy & validation.
ARCC forecast details · ARCC sentiment details
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