YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped YPF stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: YPF Sociedad Anónima is experiencing a structural operational renaissance anchored by world-class unconventional assets in the Vaca Muerta formation and supportive domestic economic deregulation. With analysts projecting over 22% near-term upside toward $60, the company is strategically divesting high-cost mature fields (Project Andes) while prioritizing core shale expansion, vital export pipelines, and a landmark $24B LNG project backed by emerging international financing. Although tail risks persist via sovereign legal disputes and volatile commodity pricing, YPF's low breakeven extraction costs and transitioning export profile provide a highly favorable risk-reward profile over multi-year horizons. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $35.2, P50 $58.5, and P90 $72.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
YPF Sociedad Anónima Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $35.2 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $58.5 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $72 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
Near-term sentiment is bolstered by domestic economic deregulation in Argentina, pricing parity reforms for domestic fuels, and advancing infrastructure out of Vaca Muerta. Analyst targets point toward $58-$60, though broader oil price softness and Argentine macro volatility remain swing factors.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this YPF analysis generated?
October 29, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed YPF prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
View the full YPF stock analysis · YPF sentiment · Methodology · Accuracy & validation
The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.