Waste Management, Inc. (WM) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped WM stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE: WM) represents a quintessential defensive compounder supported by irreplaceable infrastructure assets, exceptional pricing power, and resilient municipal revenue streams. While Q3 earnings reflected modest margin drag from sticky wage and operating inflation, core revenue grew over 6% year-over-year, and pricing discipline remained intact. Near-term catalysts such as the integration of Stericycle and the operational scale-up of 20+ RNG projects provide high-visibility margin expansion and revenue upside through 2027. Trading at an analyst consensus median of $261 (+13.1% upside) with an attractive total shareholder return engine (1.67% dividend yield and consistent buybacks), WM provides defensive growth capable of delivering sustainable mid-to-high single-digit earnings compounding over the next decade. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $194, P50 $256, and P90 $292.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
Waste Management, Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $194 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $256 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $292 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
WM holds an impenetrable moat via permitted landfill assets and sticky contractual pricing power. Despite near-term inflation and labor costs squeezing margins slightly in Q3, core price increases outpace cost headwinds. Strong analyst consensus (BUY, median target $261) and a predictable defensive cash flow profile position the stock for high single- to low double-digit capital appreciation plus dividend yield over the next 12 months.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this WM analysis generated?
October 28, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed WM prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
View the full WM stock analysis · WM sentiment · Methodology · Accuracy & validation
The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.