Replimune Group, Inc. (REPL) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped REPL stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Replimune Group (REPL) has achieved a transformative milestone with the U.S. regulatory approval and market launch of TUDRIQEV for advanced melanoma. This regulatory de-risking has propelled the shares significantly off their 52-week lows, moving the company from a purely clinical-stage biotech into an active commercial-stage immuno-oncology player. While short-term trading may see volatility due to profit-taking and ongoing operating cash burns, the fundamental outlook over the 1-to-5-year horizon is robust. With consensus analyst targets implying a ~22% near-term upside and significant optionality for label expansion into additional solid tumor indications, REPL offers compelling growth potential with the classic biotech profile of high-beta upside and execution-dependent risk. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $11.2, P50 $20.5, and P90 $29.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
Replimune Group, Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $11.2 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $20.5 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $29 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
The commercial rollout of TUDRIQEV (RP1) for advanced melanoma provides immediate revenue visibility and validation for Replimune's oncolytic immunotherapy platform. While recent share price gains (+141% over trailing periods) create near-term volatility and valuation digestion risks, solid analyst backing (median target $19.00, mean $19.86) and institutional interest in first-in-class launches provide strong support.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this REPL analysis generated?
October 28, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed REPL prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
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The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.