O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (ORLY) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped ORLY stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: O'Reilly Automotive represents one of retail's most durable compounders, supported by an entrenched multi-tier distribution network and an aging vehicle fleet that insulates demand from economic cyclicality. Recent earnings outperformance and guidance hikes demonstrate ongoing execution strength and effective price pass-through. While EV adoption presents a multi-decade tail-risk, the near-to-intermediate term outlook remains favorable due to share repurchases, market share gains in the professional channel, and an undemanding valuation relative to free cash flow yield. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $78, P50 $106, and P90 $122.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $78 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $106 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $122 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
O'Reilly demonstrates robust pricing power, resilient demand driven by the aging US vehicle fleet (average age over 12.5 years), and strong execution shown by recent earnings beats and guidance raises. Consensus target of $108 suggests ~19% upside, supported by defensive qualities in an uncertain macro climate.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this ORLY analysis generated?
October 29, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed ORLY prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
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The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.