Moderna, Inc. (MRNA) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped MRNA stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Moderna, Inc. is poised to benefit from its innovative mRNA platform and leadership in vaccine development, though faces challenges from competitive and regulatory fronts. Its pioneering advancements in mRNA applications beyond COVID-19 represent substantial growth opportunities. However, the market's cautious stance is understandable, given recent analyst downgrades and regulatory hurdles. The company has strong long-term potential, contingent on successful execution of its mRNA pipeline expansions and effective competition management. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $42, P50 $55, and P90 $70.
Last analyzed · Model: gpt-4o
Moderna, Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $42 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $55 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $70 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
Despite strong fundamentals like an impressive revenue growth estimate and recent earnings beat streak, the analyst consensus suggests skepticism, likely due to competitive pressures and regulatory concerns. The current analyst targets imply a downside, indicating cautious near-term sentiment. However, positive headlines around new collaborations and mRNA therapies could buffer potential declines.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this MRNA analysis generated?
August 2, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed MRNA prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
View the full MRNA stock analysis · MRNA sentiment · Methodology · Accuracy & validation
The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.