Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped MPC stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) currently trades at $412.04 and has shown strong financial performance, with a notable earnings beat streak and a significant revenue growth estimate. Despite a BUY analyst consensus, implied downside in price targets signals cautious market sentiment, partly due to environmental concerns. Nonetheless, the company's strategic investments and technological advancements in renewable energy suggest robust potential for growth. Our market outlook sees MPC outperforming market averages over one, five, and ten-year horizons, driven by strong fundamentals and strategic initiatives, though oil price volatility and regulatory risks warrant attention. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $305, P50 $380, and P90 $450.
Last analyzed · Model: gpt-4o
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $305 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $380 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $450 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
Marathon Petroleum has demonstrated strong performance with a history of earnings beats and positive revenue growth projections. However, the analyst consensus implies a downside, suggesting mixed market perceptions possibly due to environmental concerns. The positive earnings and recent strategic moves such as expansions in renewable energy investments and technology acquisitions support a bullish case, while volatility in oil prices and environmental issues might contribute to bearish outcomes.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this MPC analysis generated?
September 16, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed MPC prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
View the full MPC stock analysis · MPC sentiment · Methodology · Accuracy & validation
The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.