Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped MBLY stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) is navigating a transitional cyclical trough, currently trading near its 52-week low at $6.41 following automotive OEM destocking and a near-term revenue contraction of -7.9%. Despite top-line pressure, operational discipline remains exceptionally resilient, evidenced by an 8-quarter consecutive EPS beat streak and average quarterly beats exceeding 80%. Wall Street consensus remains heavily weighted to the buy side with an implied upside of nearly 70% toward an $11.00 target.
While competitive threats from Nvidia's centralized DRIVE platform and Qualcomm represent legitimate risks in premium EV tiers, Mobileye maintains an unmatched installed base of over 150 million vehicles and an industry-standard vision stack. Over the next 12 to 36 months, the normalization of Tier-1 inventory, combined with the transition from basic ADAS to high-ASP SuperVision and Chauffeur platforms, sets the stage for a sharp inflection in cash generation and top-line recovery, offering an asymmetric risk/reward profile for value and growth-at-a-reasonable-price investors. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $5, P50 $8.5, and P90 $12.5.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
Mobileye Global Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $5 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $8.5 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $12.5 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
Trading near 52-week lows creates an asymmetric valuation setup. Despite a near-term revenue contraction of -7.9% due to automotive inventory adjustments, an 8-quarter EPS beat streak and +68.5% analyst consensus upside suggest downside is largely priced in as inventory headwinds normalize.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this MBLY analysis generated?
October 30, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed MBLY prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
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The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.