Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) Stock Forecast 2026: P10, P50 & P90 — Probabli.AI
Timestamped AUR stock forecast with 1-year P10, P50, and P90 price estimates, scenario probabilities, definitions, sources, and limitations.
Direct answer: Aurora Innovation (AUR) stands at the threshold of commercializing Level 4 autonomous trucking. While the company operates at a steep net loss with modest near-term revenues, the underlying business is buoyed by Tier-1 OEM partnerships (PACCAR, Volvo), high-conviction fleet MOUs (such as Charger Logistics), and unanimous institutional support reflecting an analyst consensus BUY with over 128% upside. In the near-to-medium term, successful removal of onboard safety drivers will serve as the primary rerating catalyst. Investors must weigh the transformative upside of high-margin Driver-as-a-Service economics against persistent cash burn and expected equity dilution risk. The saved 1-year distribution is P10 $3.4, P50 $7.5, and P90 $13.
Last analyzed · Model: gemini-3.8-flash
Aurora Innovation, Inc. Forecast data
| Estimate | 1-year price | Meaning |
|---|
| P10 | $3.4 | Pessimistic plausible scenario |
| P50 | $7.5 | Median scenario |
| P90 | $13 | Optimistic plausible scenario |
What the numbers mean
P10, P50, and P90 are model-generated scenario estimates: roughly a pessimistic plausible outcome, a median outcome, and an optimistic plausible outcome. They are not calibrated confidence intervals.
Supporting analysis
Aurora is approaching the pivotal transition from pilot validation to driverless commercial operations. Wall Street analyst consensus is strongly bullish with a median price target of $12.00 (over 128% upside), supported by commercial MOUs like the 500-truck Charger agreement. However, elevated cash burn and execution risk around safety driver removal remain short-term headwinds.
Sources and limitations
Market and company inputs are primarily sourced through Yahoo Finance and public financial-data interfaces. This page reports a saved AI-generated scenario analysis as of the timestamp above; it is not live data, audited probability, financial advice, or a guaranteed return.
Frequently asked questions
When was this AUR analysis generated?
October 29, 2026.
Is this a guaranteed AUR prediction?
No. It is a model-generated scenario assessment with material uncertainty.
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The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.