Microsoft could crush estimates with AI momentum, increased capex and new partnerships Alphabet must prove it can maintain dominance in search while AI…
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By RealMattMoney · April 27, 2026 · MSFT GOOGL META AMZN
- Microsoft could crush estimates with AI momentum, increased capex and new partnerships
- Alphabet must prove it can maintain dominance in search while AI spending pressures margins.
- Meta is riding Reels growth, will capex and layoff talk make them stumble + new app in Europe
- Amazon needs AWS to shine - potential reacceleration? Slowing consumer trends may cause turbulence
Let’s talk big tech earnings on Wednesday, April 29th. This week isn’t just another round of quarterly results; it’s the Super Bowl for the market (I stole this term from Steve or Amit). We’ve got Microsoft ($MSFT), Alphabet ($GOOGL), Meta ($META), and Amazon ($AMZN) all stepping onto the field, and what they report Wednesday could set the tone for the entire market in Q2 and the current rally we've seen over the past two weeks. As a precursor, let me just say, weak hands don't make money during inflection points like this. Let’s break this down and figure out who can outperform, who might disappoint, and where the market’s narrative is dead wrong. (This is a short term outlook for the quarter and does not impact my long term theses on these companies unless explicitly stated) Microsoft: AI Leadership + Partnerships = Powerhouse Microsoft comes into this earnings week with some serious momentum. It's not dirt cheap like when it was trading below $360, but guess what? The market is pricing in growth, and that’s the right call. Between partnerships with Stellantis and its continued dominance in AI through its OpenAI stake, this company isn’t just riding the AI Trend - it is a key player in defining it. Here’s what I’m betting you’ll see on Wednesday: strong cloud revenue through Azure and tangible AI integration driving demand across industries. Remember, Microsoft isn’t just slapping “AI” on their products like some of these other players—they’re building infrastructure for it. Watch guidance closely; if they signal acceleration in AI-related growth, weak hands will get squeezed out after hours, and I’ll be loading up if there’s any dip. The downside risk is simple: operating margins. Investments in AI and infrastructure are expensive, and that could pressure profitability (increasing depreciation costs?). But if you’re selling because margins contract a bit while they dominate the biggest tech shift of the decade, you don’t understand the generational play unfolding here. Microsoft is a hold, full stop. I'm long 200 shares. (small position, I know) Alphabet: The Search King Has Something to Prove Alphabet ($GOOGL) faces a tougher road this week. AI spending is eating into margins, they're issuing debt, and let’s be honest every is still in fear of search declining as AI competition intensifies. The pressure on Google to prove it can defend its dominance in both search and AI is enormous. On the positive side, I’m expecting solid YouTube revenue numbers to offset some of the search softness (if there is any). Plus, their cloud arm, GCP, has been gaining share and increasing ops margins and could surprise to the upside. If AI starts showing up for them, then Alphabet needs to call this out in the call and show prudent spending that translates into earnings power, not just moonshot efforts. The risk here is perception. If their numbers tell a story of declining profitability or uninspired growth, the stock could take a hit - especially with debt growing and massive capex and declining free cash flows. I’m neutral on Alphabet heading into earnings as it has run substantially over the last 6 months. Not a panic sell here either. Let’s see if they give us a reason to change that stance. (Long with ~500 shares) Meta: Riding the Reels Wave (But Ad Revenue Is Key) Meta is in a fascinating spot. They’ve pivoted aggressively to short videos, making Reels their growth engine. That’s smart, especially as TikTok faces political scrutiny in key markets. But the real question is can ad revenue recover fast enough to justify the bullish sentiment around the stock? The good news is that Meta has streamlined its cost structure and leaned into efficiency and announced layoffs north of 30,000. I’d bet they show improved margins thanks to layoffs and other expense cuts. And don’t sleep on their ambitions for the metaverse - whether you believe it in or not, the long term adoption of the Reality Labs narrative might gain traction if they set achievable, incremental goals this quarter. The downside? Ad budgets are still volatile. If growth in Reels doesn’t translate to ad spend that beats expectations, the stock could face turbulence. That said, Meta remains a company I’d hold—and buy aggressively on any unwarranted dip. People underestimate Zuck’s ability to pivot and execute. Let's hope CapEx does not bite them here. (I have a short put on $META, where I am anticipating price increase with theta decay) Amazon: AWS or Bust Amazon ($AMZN) is the most polarizing name heading into Wednesday. At its current level, it’s priced like the market believes AWS will continue carrying the business while retail slows. And honestly with people pocket watching these days.... That’s probably accurate. AWS is the crown jewel here. If cloud growth surprises to the upside or even reaccelerate, this stock will rip higher. But if AWS shows any signs of continued slowing (in terms of YoY growth rates), combined with weaker-than-expected retail sales, expect bears to come out swinging and send this thing lower to where it just came from. Personally, I’m cautiously optimistic. Amazon is still a juggernaut, and their international retail business could surprise people expecting domestic stagnation - overall ops margins for the group have been icnreasing! They’ve also made smart moves toward efficiencies over the past 24 months. My conviction lies squarely with AWS. If it’s a miss, I’m not selling, I’m buying the fear. (Almost 800 shares in $AMZN with ambitions to increase to 1000) Closing Earnings weeks like this separate traders from tourists. Microsoft is my top pick for Wednesday as it’s defining the AI narrative, not just following it. Meta has strong upside potential with Reels and cost efficiency. Amazon is a hold with a focus on AWS (I think they will surprise here). Alphabet could surprise, but it needs to show dominance in AI to win back skeptics and search needs to keep dominating. If you’re dumping big tech stocks because you think the macro environment is scary, you’re playing yourself. This isn’t just another quarter—it’s a generational inflection point in tech. The next 24-36 months may be the most exciting times to come... I’m not selling here. I'm buying on any dips... unsure where I'll get the money but I'll find it. Are you?
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