$SPY is sitting at $713.94, an all-time high Big tech earnings this week are a potential rally decider — capex cuts, layoffs, and cautious guidance could kill…
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By RealMattMoney · April 25, 2026 · $SPY $MSFT $GOOGL $AMZN
- $SPY is sitting at $713.94, an all-time high
- Big tech earnings this week are a potential rally decider — capex cuts, layoffs, and cautious guidance could kill the party.
- Despite threats, easing Middle East tensions, strong consumer data, and resilient megacaps are fueling upside.
- Weak hands are scared, I'm holding and adding monthly automatically and on dips to add more.
The S&P 500 (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY)), just crossed into new territory trading at $713.94 as of today. That's an all-time high! Let that sink in. For every bear who screamed ‘recession, recession, recession' sold during the panic during last year’s volatility or even the middle east pullback recently, the market just printed a fresh reminder: betting against the S&P 500 is almost always a losing game long-term. But where do we go from here? This week is the olympics. It's make or break for this rally and frankly for some of the recent recovery of the hyperscalers. It’s all coming down to tech earnings. If you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the 'perfect dip,' you might miss the bus entirely... or this week may provide an opportunity to dabble your feet and tell everyone "i told you so." Let’s dig into the catalysts, threats, and opportunities right now. Tech Earnings: The Rally’s Biggest Catalyst (or Killer) Big tech earnings this week are the elephant in the room. Companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Google have carried this recent recovery for recent lows of $640 on $SPY on their backs. The question now is whether they can keep lifting. Here's the issue - these companies are also the most vulnerable to any hiccup. Capex spending cuts? That’s the market signaling fear about future growth. Layoffs? That’s a quick way to save cash, invest more, but never a positive sign for demand in the broader economy. Wall Street is hyper focused on hyperscaler guidance right now. Beat on revenue or EPS all you want if the outlook calls for a slowdown, this $713.94 level on SPY could hit a wall fast. Watch for mentions of cloud adoption, AI-driven demand, and consumer spending trends. Any softness in these areas will be magnified. But, and this is a big but, a solid round of earnings could light a serious fire under this rally. Every fund manager who’s been underweight tech will have no choice but to chase here. Tough to call right now, but I am bullish going into this week. Threats Lurking Beneath the Surface Let’s talk about the risks no one stop referring to when it comes to this rally - inflation , layoffs, geopolitical issues, valuation concerns, capex, the list goes on. First off, sure, inflation isn’t disappearing overnight and the recent rally in oil prices aren't helping shorter term. However tone has shifted at the FED, and 10 year yields are not melting up like they were, so it looks like the bond market has priced in a pause, if not a cut or more later in the year. This is not 2022 anymore. We’ve seen companies manage pricing power beautifully, and margins across major industries are still healthy, debt in most cases is reasonable. As for layoffs, yeah, they’re happening, especially in tech. Here’s what the bears don’t want to admit: trimming fat isn’t weakness; it’s operational efficiency. These firms are recalibrating to prep for their next growth phase. That’s why I’m not running for the exits every time someone headlines with 'layoffs at XYZ.' The easing Middle East tensions are a big win, Geopolitically. Oil prices are retreating, taking pressure off input costs for major industries - there is no more talk of Oil to $200/bbl. If this trend holds, it will only add fuel to the S&P’s fire. And a retracement in oil price helps month over month inflation values and fuel costs will come down which assist with YoY inflation values. Opportunities in Plain Sight The opportunities here are too big to ignore. Look at what’s driving this rally: resilient consumer spending, megacap dominance, and a tech sector that refuses to quit. $SPY is the best vehicle to capture all of that. At $713.94, you’re buying exposure to the 500 biggest public companies in America — and those companies are still growing and most are not even near their all time highs. Every pullback has been bought aggressively, and that’s no accident. The smart money knows that sitting and waiting for the ‘perfect price’ is a fool’s game. The bottom 90% of stocks in the S&P500 are no longer in 52 week lows, they're moving. The big wildcard for me? AI spending. This isn’t a bubble; it’s the next industrial revolution. Look at NVIDIA’s blowout year last year. AI capex is going to keep flowing for years, and that benefits not just individual names but the entire index. Don’t sleep on that megatrend - however I can see a world in 2-3 years where write downs may occur as future cash flows are not nearly as dominant as predicted. However in the short term I believe we are under weight on valuations. My Bottom Line If you’re selling here, I am not sure what to say. I’ve been clear about this for months: $SPY is a generational hold - unless nuclear war is upon us - just keep buying. At $713.94, sure, it’s not 'cheap' by historical metrics, but when was the last time betting on the S&P breaking down worked long-term? Exactly. The upcoming earnings week could bring volatility, but that’s not a reason to panic. It’s an opportunity. Any dip on nervous guidance or short-term profit-taking is a gift. The market has been wrong before, and it’ll be wrong again. I’m holding my SPY position, adding on every check I get and look for chances to add more on big pullbacks. The weak hands can sell, but I’ll be here owning the backbone of the U.S. economy. I suggest you do the same.
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