A Breakdown of How Venture Global and other LNG exporters can take advantage of Spot Prices — Probabli.AI

Venture Global ($VG) operates 11 boats (9 owned, 2 chartered). Crucially, 8 of these vessels are free from DES (Delivered Ex Ship) contracts, allowing them to…

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By RealMattMoney · March 24, 2026 · More VG articles

Venture Global ($VG) operates 11 boats (9 owned, 2 chartered). Crucially, 8 of these vessels are free from DES (Delivered Ex Ship) contracts, allowing them to chase spot market opportunities
Massive Spread Expansion: Profit margins have increased by roughly $10/mmBTU recently—driven by the gap between US Gulf Coast prices ($6.50/mmBTU) and European TTF prices (>$19/mmBTU)
High Operational Turnover: Because round trips to the EU only take 35–45 days, each of the 8 available boats can efficiently lock in 2 highly profitable spot-price voyages per quarter.
$1.8B Bottom-Line Uplift: The math translates to a massive windfall: a $10 increase per mmBTU across 8 ships taking 2 trips per quarter yields nearly $600 million in additional spot revenue per qtr

Venture Global owns 9 boats and charters 2 more.

One of the boats is being used for delivering shipments to Ukraine at the moment.

The other boats are being leveraged by $VG ‘s trading and shipping business.

Each boat holds at a minimum 3.7 million mmBTU. Spreads have increased by nearly $10 over the last few weeks and half begun to sustain themselves out to the December 2026 futures as well.

Each boat to the EU takes approximately 35-45 days round trip, so let’s assume each boat gets 2 spot price trips per quarter.

So that $10 increase, times 3.7 mmbtu means each boat is worth approximately $37 million more than it was just a few weeks ago. And each boat can lock in 2 trips per quarter.

That’s $74 m in additional revenue, that is mostly hitting the bottom line.

Remember, 8 out of the 9 boats are not on DES contracts, so multiply that $74 m by 8, that’s nearly $600 m.

And there’s 3 more quarters in the year, that’s $600m uplift in spot revenues per quarter times 3 more full quarters in the year… that’s a $1.8B uplift in revenue that will likely translate largely to the bottom line.

I am sure $VG is currently taking advantage of organizing these contracts while the environment is favorable.

Assumptions:

FOB at gulf coast of $6.50/mmbtu
Current TTF prices > $19/mmbtu
Assume expansion of net back from $3/mmbtu a few weeks ago to closer to $11-12 mmbtu today.

The information on this page is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute professional financial advice.